Author’s note: This blog is based on a published article: Bratsiotis, G.J. and Pathirage, K.D. (2026), ‘Monetary and Macroprudential Policy and Welfare in an Estimated Four-Agent New Keynesian Model’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 58(5), pp. 1411-1452. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13095. The views expressed in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent […]
24
Sep
Sep
Asia’s digitalization push is increasingly focused on growth, inclusion, regional trade and investment, and financial resilience amid a fragmenting global economy. Across the region, digitalization is already strengthening intraregional trade, supply-chain management, and new forms of financial access. Digital platforms, e-customs, digital certificates, and logistics technologies are making it easier for firms to participate in […]
Financial Stability
Climate Risk Is Financial Risk: Why Asia’s Central Banks Cannot Wait and How They Should Respond
15
Sep
Sep
Climate risks are intensifying while transition progress remains too slow. Against the backdrop, central banks face the practical challenge of containing the financial stability risks of delayed transition while enabling markets to fund credible pathways forward. Climate change can weaken banks, disrupt markets, raise sovereign risk, and undermine macroeconomic performance. For Asia-Pacific, the exposure is […]
03
Sep
Sep
1. AI opens a new path to true financial inclusion beyond access in developing Asia Developing Asia has made major progress in financial inclusion since 2011, but effective use of financial services continues to lag behind access. Global Findex (2025) data show that account ownership rose from around 45% of adults in 2011 to about […]
AI, Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
AI Adoption, Regional Productivity, and Inflation: Evidence from Korea and Implications for Monetary Policy
28
Aug
Aug
The relationship between artificial intelligence (AI), productivity, and inflation is complex and multifaceted. AI adoption is expected to significantly raise productivity, therefore increasing aggregate output in the long run. However, AI-related spending could increase consumption and investment even before productivity gains materialized. Inflation responses to AI adoption also depends on the expectations of households and […]
13
Aug
Aug
This column examines the macroeconomic effects of defense spending shocks, with a focus on emerging and developing economies. Using cyclically adjusted defense shocks and a local projections framework for a global sample over the period 1990 to 2023, we estimate that defense shocks yield modest but persistent effects on output, with multipliers of around 0.7% […]
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
Policy Lessons for Central Banks: High-Level Policy Roundtable on War, Oil Shocks, and Trade Restrictions
21
May
May
This blog post is based on the policy roundtable held on 15 May 2026, featuring panellists Professor Danny Quah, Professor Shang-Jin Wei, Professor Joseph Cherian, and Associate Professor Jamie Cross. In the age of geoeconomics, major economies increasingly use their power, market influence, and cross-border interdependence to advance national and strategic goals. Tariffs, sanctions, export […]
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
Economics of Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Monetary Policy
06
May
May
This blog is based on a presentation made by Ceyhun Elgin at the SEACEN online course “Practical use of AI in monetary policy” on 28-30 April 2026. The Falling Cost of Cognition: Why Central Banks Must Rethink the AI Shock Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often discussed as a futuristic marvel or a tool for specialised […]
Human Capital, Leadership
Central Banks as Architects of Resilience: Why Governance, Independence, and Law Matter More Than Ever
05
May
May
The world of central banking is being reshaped at an unprecedented pace. Technological disruption, climate-related risks, and shifting geoeconomic dynamics are not only redefining the operating environment, but also fundamentally altering what is expected of central banks. In this context, central banks are increasingly called upon to act as “architects of resilience,” navigating a multitude […]
Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
Global population is aging but a silver dividend may be the silver lining
21
Apr
Apr
This blog is based on Pension Research Council Working Paper 2025-05 “Global Aging and Growth: Is There A Silver Dividend?” In the long run, the demographic transition toward aging populations is an inevitable global phenomenon. According to UN definition, 7% to 14% of the population is 65 years old or older in aging societies. Even […]